Hurricane Hazard Prediction and Communication in the Modern Information Environment

Hurricane forecasts have improved significantly during the last few decades, but accurately predicting where and when a hurricane will make landfall remains challenging. It is even more challenging to predict the high wind and flooding hazards and associated impacts that different people will experience, especially with enough advance warning for people at risk to evacuate safely. MMM scientists continue to focus on research to help address these challenges by understanding and improving hurricane prediction and risk communication from an integrated perspective. Findings from recent research furthers understanding of how weather forecast information is translated into decisions and societal outcomes. Scientists have developed a new paradigm for conceptualizing how weather-related information, interpretations, and decisions evolve dynamically as hazardous weather approaches and arrives. In the upcoming year, research will be continued to understand this complex dynamical system and to utilize the findings to enhance weather research, prediction, and risk communication in the modern information environment.

Collaborators: University of Colorado Boulder, Arizona State University, Rutgers University

Funding Sponsors: NSF, NOAA

Example tweets illustrating the types of risk information, interpretations and risk perceptions, and protective decisions and other responses discussed by people at risk during a hurricane threat
Figure: Example tweets illustrating the types of risk information, interpretations and risk perceptions, and protective decisions and other responses discussed by people at risk during a hurricane threat.