Regional climate modeling

Researchers continue to work on the development of NCAR’s coupled atmosphere-ocean, dynamical-statistical regional climate modeling which focuses on approaches to combine dynamical and statistical views of regional climate. 

In FY2017, scientists in C3WE added an extension to the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) that includes a full physics boundary layer model. The resulting global hurricane footprint (see figure below) dataset developed using this code will be released to the community in early FY18.

The Hybrid-WRF Cyclone Model was used to study the effect climate change and variability will have on the impacts of tropical cyclones. A major finding showed that flooding from future tropical cyclones will impact areas previously believed to be outside the flood zones.

A global hail model was developed in close collaboration with MMM's Dynamical and Physical Meteorology Section, which allows estimating damaging hail risks from observed large-scale environmental conditions. The model is able to provide skillful estimates from city to global scales and from event to climate timescales. It will be used to investigate changes in hail risk due to climate variability and climate change and is hoped to improve our ability to forecast hail on seasonal to decadal scales.

The 2017 annual Regional Climate Tutorial was full to capacity. The tutorial was hosted by C3WE/MMM with cross laboratory involvement from IMAGe and GLOBE. The Regional Climate Tutorial provides a broad overview of best practices for developing and using regional climate data. The Tutorial included a diverse group of participants…from university, state agencies, federal government, to industry.

Regional Climate Modeling figure

                                       Figure: Wind footprint generated with new Physics Boundary Layer Model for Hurricane Frances (2004)